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GRU Rules

By John Batchelor on August 13, 2008 4:44 PM | 0 Comments

 A Mad Non-Aggression Pact

Peculiarly uncertain news arrives that Sarkozy has arrived in Tbilisi with a ceasefire agreement that, as of 2 am Georgia time, which was 6 pm Eastern Time, Tuesday 12, was accepted in some fashion by the exhausted Saakashvili.  It is dawn now in Georgia, and the Russians are said to be withdrawing, in some fashion, or at least redeploying.  The details remain foggy, and the BBC is reporting that Saakashvili has not agreed to all the terms.  Earlier in the London day, the dry, lively, veteran voice of Quentin Peel of the Financial Times argued persuasively that the Medvedev call for a ceasefire in Tuesday 12's news cycle was "a bit of a surprise" and not at all reliable because of the conditions laid down for Sarkozy to carry to Saakashvili.

Said Peel with a twinkle of doubt, "..the key one that will be very tough for the Georgians to agree to is signing an agreement on the non-use of violence..."   This is an understatement of continental dimensions.  Signing a non-aggression pact with Russia when there are tanks on your highways and Spesnatz in your woods is an act of madness or betrayal.  Perhaps that is the part that Saakashvili has refused.  If Saakashvili does agree to such a fiction, the nhe is either unfit for office or a Russian dupe.  Peel noted cleverly that Moscow was aware that it is on a clock to get the deal done before the photos of the violence, and the facts of the aggression, unite the whole of Georgia and the West into action.  Peel believes that Moscow's aim here is "to topple" Saakashvili -- which is what madness or treachery would trigger -- but that Saakashvili is still too popular to get this accomplished.  As of this posting, Saakashvili remains in control, magnificently operatic, a world-scale Byron on the TV in Europe.  So how does Moscow topple a superstar of the Cold War, the remake?

Topple How?

This toppling ambition by Moscow is a puzzle.   There is an explanation from my best Russian intelligence source, writing from Europe, who declares that the whole of the Georgia scenario of provocation, invasion, domination and now negotiation is under the control of the infamous GRU, Russian military intelligence (the GRU's actual batman insignia, left).  This whole opera is a GRU script, from the so-called Georgia aggression in South Ossetia to the so-called ceasefire in which Russia continues to attack, to the peace mission by Sarkozy that is burdened with non-sense clauses.  It is the GRU pulling the strings.  The Georgia government is totally penetrated, and the same is true for the South Ossetia leaders and the Abkhazian leaders.  The GRU owns the secret war to conquer Georgia.

GRU Rules

Recall that after the KGB coup of 1991, the Kremlin broke up the KGB into two impotent parts, the foreign ops SVR, and the domestic ops FSR.  Meanwhile the GRU grew and grew; it numbers hundred of thousands, and it has its own special operations units, the infamous Spesnatz (left), the fellows you can see hiking through the Georgia woods.  At the same time, many of the Georgian parliament, much of the Georgian apparatus, parts of the Georgian military are either GRU double-agents or hirelings.   In 2006, Georgia arrested four Russian GRU spies and ten Georgian accomplices, leading to the Russians recalling the ambassador and following a GRU script to undermine the Georgian leadership.  That plot never went away, it just broadened.  The so-called confrontation over South Ossetia and Abkhazia is part of the GRU provocations to fragment Georgia's public support for Saakashvili and his pro-American zealots.  What comes next?  More pressure for Saakashvili to step-aside.  The diplomatic dance by Mr. Sarkozybuys Moscow a little time to act the good faith adversary yet also to drive its agents to provoke dissent.  Saakashvili is vivid and resolute now; but the long days and weeks ahead will see him regarded by Georgians as part of the problem.  While the Russian armor columns and diplomats are in a hurry to stop those photos of tanks in front of bombed buildings, the GRU is dogged, stubborn,